Our quiet neighbors...

Scientists have long known that the Milky Way galaxy contains an estimated 200-400 billion stars (the disparity being caused by the large number of stars possibly hidden from view by other stars, stars that we can now see but subsequently have gone extinct and we are as yet unaware of it, stars that have formed that we cannot see yet, and of course stars that were destroyed during interstellar war between super-advanced alien species), of which they believed many had planets. Planets outside our own solar system are called "exoplanets". Now, a new finding by Dr. Alan Boss of the Carnegie Institute of Science suggests that as many as 1 in 4 of these stars may be orbited by an "earth-like" exoplanet. Although the immediate mental image is of water and lush green vegetation, the truth is he is referring to "rocky planets" i.e. not gas giants, which are the most common type of exoplanet found thus far.

This calls into focus the Drake Equation, which was proposed in 1960 by Frank Drake (not the Francis Drake, that guy lived in the 1500's). The equation attempts to quantify through broad statistical analysis the number of terrestrial planets there are, and more importantly how many of those planets have intelligent life capable of communication with humanity. The Drake Equation puts the number of rocky exoplanets far below the number proposed by Dr. Boss; if Boss is correct, the number of extraterrestrial civilizations would increase from Drake's proposed 10 to possibly thousands.

But, one must ask (and they have), if there are thousands of intelligent species out there, why have we not detected a single one? If a person traveled to the edge of our solar system and pointed a microphone inwards, the amount of radio data being beamed outward would be deafening. How have we not noticed the same in other solar systems?

My guess is this: the window of opportunity is very small. Take our own planet for example. The estimated age of the earth is 4.4 billion years. Humans have had the technology to broadcast radio waves (powerful enough to be detected from deep space) for around 60 years. That means that aliens, if taking a random sample of radio data from earth from its formation up to the present, have a 1 in 7,350,000 of sampling during the period where they'd actually hear something. This is significant because an advanced civilization, deep in space, has a noticeable (years) delay before our radio broadcasts will actually reach them. For example, a radio broadcast into space today will not reach the nearest star for about 4.2 years. The nearest star with a planet: 10.4 years. Therefore, best case scenario, the last 10 years of technological development are completely unknown to any intelligent species other than ourselves in this universe.
The same goes for us looking for other species on other worlds. It seems very likely that their "window of radio" would be as sufficiently tiny versus the overall age of their planet, and therefore our observations would have lottery jackpot odds of actually witnessing a planet at the right age to have an intelligent species with radio broadcast capability.
The other problem is that humans may very soon develop a technology that surpasses radio waves for through-the-air information transmission. Could it be that the entire history of radio will be less than 150 years long? If so, one should assume that another intelligent species in space also would find its own radio transmission systems obsolete and shut them down, ending the opportunity for extra-solar observers like ourselves to find them.

Here is my suggestion: there are most likely many intelligent species in this universe, as there are billions of other galaxies outside the Milky Way. But in our lifetimes we will not find them. The small ocean of money we spend observing radio waves from space (mostly noise from stars and black holes), as well as the time we spend wondering philosophically about what it means if we are not the lone intelligent species in existence is money and time better spent developing means to colonize the galaxy.
As it stands now, the human species is 100% totally stuck on this planet. If a 12 mile wide asteroid was detected on a collision course with earth, we'd basically have no chicken exit, no deflection strategy, and no hope. All life on this planet would cease, and we'd be included.
Building some ridiculous space station to conduct pointless experiments (or give millionaire tourists a joy ride) is also an obscene waste of money. All our space efforts must be on developing a method for interstellar travel. Every brilliant mind at NASA, and wherever else brilliant, star-loving minds are located, must focus on this one goal: escape. We need teams focused on vessel development, research into basic sciences of jet and faster-than-light propulsion, artificial gravity, hydroponics, chemical recycling, and immune-boosting. People don't think about it, but if we landed on another planet with life, we'd probably be dead in a few hours from bacterial infection. We'd literally be "bubble boy" come out of his bubble.

We must get off this rocky planet and on to others. Then the First Contact issue will solve itself. Wouldn't it be a brilliant stroke of genius by Gene Roddenberry if our ability to travel to other stars, not knowing if they have residents already, caused us to fulfill the criteria necessary to enable our interaction with them?

Right now we are a race of brutes, pointlessly battling for terrestrial supremacy or even the right to live. But 99.999... (181 9's)% of the volume of the universe is not on earth, and we owe it to ourselves to go out there and colonize. Humans are the most adaptable single species ever created by evolution, surely we were meant to adapt beyond the rim of this world. Surely a creature so wonderfully complex and intelligent, so capable of cooperative problem-solving, so well-endowed with the anatomy and physiology for advanced technology should strive for something greater than just sitting here arguing whether global warming is real.


_