A third party candidate in 2012, continued

Here, I made the case that a third party candidate, though unlikely to get elected, could make a strong run in 2012 if Obama's policies weren't successful and universally lauded.

Ross Douthat makes the argument that a Republican ideologist could do exactly what I predicted a third party candidate would have done. The argument he makes seems to me to be based on the idea that the existing Republican party is essentially done, none of the names he suggests are people who have run for President before, nor are the few that the media has claimed the Republicans may be interested in nominating.

He also mentions the old fan favorite, Ron Paul. I don't blame him, when I think of Republicans and strong ideologies that don't mesh with the current mainstream Republican party, I immediately think of Ron Paul.

I feel this is an issue that we should revisit because Obama's approval rating has slipped, especially among right-leaning voters. Part of McCain's problem was that many conservatives weren't especially enchanted with him. The more and more Obama leans left (away from his centrist campaign promises) the more and more the conservatives rally against him.

All this paves the way for a third party candidate. The Republicans are still by and large incompetent, or easily shown to be by a shrewd candidate. The Dems could easily look like failures, if things haven't turned around by late 2010. A third party ideologue could easily paint both parties as the past, and step forward as the bright, shiny, alternative.

The Republicans would be smart to beat that joke to the punchline, however, and choose amongst them a relatively mainstream, conservative ideologue of their own. If the Republicans can say "we're still us, but we're better," with sufficient volume, and show off their new, smart, Lex Luthor to the Dems Superman, they could very likely make a smart run in 2012.

But if the Republicans don't wisely choose their next candidate, I think they're doomed. Obama has his Lincoln-worship, the Republicans need a candidate with Jefferson-worship.


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